China-Pakistan Collusion: Strategic Implications for India

Context

• Operation Sindoor (May 7–10, 2025) revealed a concerning development in regional security: real-time military coordination between China and Pakistan.

• Confirmed by Deputy Chief of Army Staff Lt. Gen. Rahul R. Singh, the operation marked a shift in the China-Pakistan nexus from strategic partnership to operational-level collusion.

• This event calls for a strategic reassessment of India’s military posture, foreign policy, and its preparedness for dealing with dual-front threats.

• For UPSC, it highlights important aspects of India’s national security, neighbourhood diplomacy, grey-zone warfare, and defence modernization.

Nature of China-Pakistan Collusion

1. From Passive Partnership to Active Tactical Alliance

• In previous conflicts (1965, 1971, 1999), China supported Pakistan only diplomatically.

• Operation Sindoor showed:

  • Operational support to Pakistan by China.

  • Use of real-time ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) capabilities.

  • Deployment of Chinese-made platforms in battlefield conditions.

• Represents a move towards grey-zone warfare—China empowers Pakistan without direct engagement, maintaining plausible deniability.

2. Digital and Informational Collusion

• Chinese state media and influencers amplified Pakistani propaganda.

• Coordinated with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) to:

  • Spread exaggerated reports of Indian losses.

  • Frame India’s actions as aggressive and disproportionate.

  • Conceal the terrorist origins of the conflict.

Strategic and Operational Implications for India

1. Shift in Deterrence Dynamics

• China’s indirect involvement complicates India’s ability to respond strategically.

• New strategic normal:

  • India retains the ability to retaliate conventionally.

  • China and Pakistan are building a joint operational posture under the nuclear overhang.

2. China’s Arms Industry Gaining Combat Validation

• Post-conflict, Pakistan announced procurement of:

  • J-35 stealth fighters

  • KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft

  • HQ-19 missile defence systems

• China’s weapon systems were combat-tested, giving:

  • Credibility to its arms exports

  • Incentives for future grey-zone tactics

3. India Facing Two Active Fronts

• Despite partial disengagement in Eastern Ladakh, Chinese forces remain deployed.

• The 2021 LoC ceasefire with Pakistan has collapsed.

• India now needs:

  • Troop deployment on both western and northern borders

  • Enhanced ISR and logistical support

  • Seamless coordination across two live borders

Strategic Recommendations for India

1. Recalibrate China Policy

• China’s military enabling of Pakistan should impact India-China diplomatic engagements.

• Like India’s “no talks under terror” stance with Pakistan, a similar position should apply to Beijing’s collusion.

2. Expand and Modernize Conventional Capabilities

• India’s defence spending has dropped from 17.1% to 13% of central government expenditure over the past decade.

• Urgent need to:

  • Enhance investment in ISR, drones, cyber operations, and network-centric warfare

3. Avoid Predictable Military Responses

• India should:

  • Diversify its response tools—economic sanctions, covert actions, treaty-based pressure

  • Consider reviewing the Indus Waters Treaty

  • Maintain strategic ambiguity by not publicly signaling intent

4. Institutional Integration and Doctrinal Shift

• Operation Sindoor must be seen as a template for future hybrid warfare.

• Requires:

  • Inter-agency coordination

  • Military modernization

  • Doctrinal reforms to handle blurred threat domains (cyber, psychological, and kinetic)

Conclusion

• Operation Sindoor marks a strategic turning point—collusion between China and Pakistan is now a lived battlefield reality, not just a theoretical threat.

• India must respond with:

  • Hard power

  • Diplomatic firmness

  • Strategic foresight

• The decisions made today will determine whether India can preserve regional strategic stability or remain reactive to a well-integrated adversarial axis.