Global Drought Outlook 2025: Rising Risks in a Drying World

Context

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has released its latest report, Global Drought Outlook 2025, warning of the worsening frequency and severity of droughts worldwide. As per the report, nearly 40% of the Earth's surface is now experiencing more frequent and intense droughts, making drought a major climate and developmental challenge.

About Global Drought Outlook 2025

• Released by: OECD

• Title: Global Drought Outlook: Trends, Impacts and Policies to Adapt to a Drier World, 2025

• Focus: Global assessment of drought trends, their impacts, and policy measures for adaptation

Understanding Drought and Its Types

• Definition: Drought is a hydrological imbalance caused by prolonged periods of drier-than-normal conditions, reducing soil moisture, surface water, and groundwater.

• Types of Drought:

  • Meteorological Drought: Due to significantly below-average rainfall.

  • Agricultural Drought: When soil moisture is insufficient for crop growth.

  • Hydrological Drought: When rivers, lakes, and groundwater levels fall below normal, affecting human and ecological water use.

Global Drought Trends

• Drought-affected land area has doubled since 1900, due to climate change and unsustainable land-use practices.

• In 2023, about 48% of global land experienced at least one month of extreme drought.

• Hotspots: Western United States, South America, Europe, Africa, and Australia.

• Around 62% of monitored aquifers show declining trends; major river flows are decreasing.

• If global warming reaches +4°C, droughts could become 7 times more frequent and intense by 2100, posing a global systemic risk.

Impact of Drought

1. Ecological Impact

• 37% of global soils have dried significantly since 1980.

• Decreased river flow and groundwater depletion are impacting natural ecosystems.

2. Economic Impact

• Drought-related losses are rising by 3–7.5% annually.

• An average drought now causes twice the economic damage compared to the year 2000.

• Losses are expected to rise by 35% by 2035.

• Agriculture is most affected — crop yields can drop by 22% in drought years.

• Severe droughts have caused up to a 40% decline in river trade and 25% reduction in hydropower generation.

3. Social Impact

• Though droughts account for just 6% of disasters, they cause 34% of disaster-related deaths.

• Major cause of hunger, forced migration, and displacement, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.

• Linked to social unrest and political instability due to competition over scarce resources.

Policy Measures and Solutions

• Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM): Promotes efficient use, balanced withdrawal and renewal, and equitable access.

• Nature-Based Solutions (NbS): Includes urban de-sealing and landscape restoration to enhance water retention.

• Sustainable Agriculture: Use of drought-tolerant crops and efficient irrigation — can reduce water usage by up to 76%.

• Urban Planning: Urban de-sealing can help recharge aquifers — e.g., U.S. models show 780 million m³/year recovery.

• Early Warning Systems: Emphasizes better monitoring, forecasting, and risk mapping.

• Policy Integration: Climate adaptation must be embedded in water management and land-use planning.

• Cross-Sectoral Collaboration: Involving transport, energy, construction, and health sectors.

• Economic Returns: Every $1 invested in drought resilience yields a $2–$10 return in avoided damage and enhanced productivity.

Conclusion

Droughts are no longer isolated events; they have become global systemic threats, impacting water, food, energy, and human security. The OECD emphasizes the need for proactive, integrated, and collaborative strategies. Early investment in resilience and adaptation will be critical to ensure sustainable water security for future generations — a priority for both climate governance and development policy, especially relevant to countries like India facing growing water stress.