India Without a Census: Planning in the Dark

Context

The Census of India, conducted every 10 years since 1881, is a vital exercise for governance and planning. However, the 2021 Census was delayed due to the Covid-19 pandemic, marking the first disruption in over a century. The government now plans to conduct the Census in two phases in 2026 and 2027, with March 1, 2027, as the reference date.

Reasons for Delay

• The delay was attributed to the Covid-19 impact on education.

• About 30 lakh enumerators, mostly primary school teachers, could not be spared without disrupting schools.

• The six-year delay is longer than in Pakistan, Bangladesh, or Sri Lanka.

Importance of Census in Governance

• Core data source for all socio-economic surveys in India.

• Provides information on population, education, migration, occupation, language, disability, etc.

• Enables accurate sampling, planning, and targeted welfare delivery.

• Acts as a mirror of change, capturing long-term trends every decade.

• After a 16-year gap, the upcoming Census will be crucial to understanding current realities.

Role in Monetary Policy and Inflation Management

• Census forms the base for CPI weights, influencing RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee decisions.

• Food items account for 46% of CPI, based on Census-backed consumption patterns.

• Outdated data may lead to inflation miscalculation, causing high interest rates and slower economic growth.

Understanding Internal Migration

• Migration is often neglected in population estimates.

• Based on 2011 Census:

  • 62% intra-district migration

  • 26% inter-district

  • 12% inter-state

• Rural-to-rural migration: 48% (largest share)

• Urban-to-urban migration: Fastest growing

• Updated data is essential for budget allocation, welfare schemes, and addressing language-based tensions.

Urbanisation and Policy Gaps

• Urbanisation rate in India varies between 30% and 70%, depending on definitions.

• Urban areas contribute 60% of GDP, occupy only 3% of land.

• Lack of clarity hampers urban planning, infrastructure development, and service delivery.

Why Census is Irreplaceable

• Surveys (NSS, NFHS, etc.) depend on Census as the sampling base.

• Administrative data is often incomplete, inconsistent, and not standardised.

• Example: NFHS 2020–21 showed 30% households without toilets, contradicting claims of total sanitation.

• Only the Census offers objective, comprehensive, and comparable data across India.